These Are the Top 5 Most Important Players in the NBA in 2021-22 (CHECK IN)
Can Trae Young take his X-Factor to the next level
This former Baylor Bear Could be the Key to Unlocking the West
How much better can Mikal Bridges Get?
Will the Nuggets soar when Jamal Murray Returns
Can Derrick Rose repeat his dominance off the bench all year?
We all know the NBA stars who lead their teams night after night, but according to MSR data these are the players who hold the keys that could unlock very special seasons for their respective teams
Bogdan Bogdanović
Atlanta Hawks
How important is Bogdanović as a compliment to the slithery drive-and-kick ability of Trae Young? The Hawks were 19-8 when he hit at least 4 treys in a game including 5-1 in their playoff run last season. He’s the 7th hitter in the lineup in baseball that can drive runners in from scoring position with 2 outs at any point in the game.
31% of Young’s passes find an open Bogdanović during the course of a game, by far and away his #1 target - and the results are strong.
11 total completions resulting in 4.6 field goals attempted total and 2.9 attempts from behind the arc with Bogdan shooting 46% overall off those passes and 40.3% from deep.
It sounds over simplified, but if the ever-evolving Young can find his sharpshooter just 1 or 2 more times on average per game, the Hawks chances of ascending to the top of the Eastern Conference increases significantly.
UPDATE 1-1-22
It wouldn’t be a stretch to correlate the Hawks first half struggles with Bogdanovic’s absence. Yes, one could argue that the Hawks have been decimated by injuries and COVID, starting with Trae Young who has missed the last 3 games. That said, Bogdanovic’s struggles stood out as the Hawks fell out of the top 8 in the Eastern Conference just a year after being one of the surprise teams in the league last year.
He’s shot a career low from the field (41.3%) and from three (36%), but it’s been his futility on the defensive end that has hurt the Hawks as much as anything. His career low -2.2 defensive box plus minus is among the worst at his position and his 116 personal defensive rating is a career low. If Bogdanvic struggles continue, it’s hard to envision the Hawks making a real run in the 2nd half of the season.
2. Royce O’Neale
Utah Jazz
During January of last season with the Jazz soaring, MSR had O’Neale as the most underrated player in the league.
However, as his production dipped, so did the Jazz’s run as the NBA’s top overall team peaking in late March before falling to the Los Angeles Clippers in the Western Conference Semi-finals in 6 games.
In mainly a spot up shooting role, O’Neale was exceptional during the winter knocking down 32 of 68 (47%) three point attempts playing off of Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell and even getting some kick outs from Rudy Gobert. The Jazz went 13-3 in those 16 games. His 20-49 (41%) clip in March helped the Jazz go 9-4 with a win over Brooklyn and a 3 game sweep of Memphis.
The tides turned in April, however, as O’Neale shot just 27% from deep. The Jazz record? 8-7 with key losses to Phoenix, the Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks which saw him go 0-8 from the field and be a complete non-factor.
This is not to say that as his 3 point shooting goes, the Jazz will go this year. But it is to say that he’s a key cog to helping convert drives from a team that ranked 4th in the league in them per game - thanks to the dynamic Mitchell and the annually unheralded Conley - and 6th in the league in points per drive.
He’s not just a complimentary scorer, either. His 2.81 defensive real plus/minus places him 18th in the entire league regardless of position, per ESPN.
It will be interesting to see how off season additions Eric Paschall and Rudy Gay mesh, but one thing is for certain, Royce O’Neal’s consistency as a spot shooter and 2-way stalwart are a major keys to ultimate success in Salt Lake City.
UPDATE 1-1-22
Settling into the small forward roll (74% of MPG at SF), as opposed to splitting time at SG/SF last season, O’Neal has really become for the Jazz what James Posey was for may years for the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat in the mid-2000s. The Jazz success over the past 2 seasons have been overshadowed by the resurgence of the Warriors, the continued growth of the Suns and now the drama that completely overshadows the Lakers. The combination of Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell. O’Neale, Bojan Bogdanovic and Rudy Gobert have amassed 412 minutes together producing a league best +11.8 Net per minute played. The 28-year-old, 5th year player out of Baylor continues to be one of the most important players for the Jazz and one of the game’s top glue guys.
3. Mikal Bridges
Phoenix Suns
While at Villanova, Bridges was the prototype 3 and D combo guard and evaluation has immediately translated to the next level. He is the perfect pair with Chris Paul and when you add in DeAndre Ayton to that mix the trio is one of the top in the entire NBA.
Over 68 games and combining for 1460 total minutes, Bridges/Paul/Ayton accrued a +7.2 net rating with a PIE of 54.5. Bridges versatility allows for the Suns to work Paul with Devin Booker to constantly put pressure on the opposing team’s interior defense. This recipe helped lead the Suns to their first NBA Finals appearance since 1993. He’s very much had a Klay Thompson-like impact since entering the league in 2018.
The good news for the Suns is that Bridges still has some room to grow at just 25 and figures to be one of the game’s top 3 and D complimentary players for years to come. I think he has All-Star potential and if he continues to soar the Suns will supplant themselves atop the Western Conference with title hopes for the next few years.
UPDATE 1-1-22
Under the tutelage of Chris Paul, Bridges continues his ascent as one of the games’ most important and durable players for the Suns. He’s played in all 35 games, averaging a career high 33 MPG and while his shooting numbers are slightly down, his 107 DRating is a career best helping lead the Suns to the league’s 2nd best Team Defensive Rating. Bridges can elevate his scoring when needed, particularly from 3, but his game is the model of efficiency evidenced by his 48% shooting on just 9FGA per game while averaging double digits.
The 4th year wing out of Villanova continues to be one of the game’s top 3 and D specialist and a catalyst for the Suns first half dominance.
4. Will Barton
Denver Nuggets
When you’re a team like Denver who has historically had to be creative in building a contender, you have to be very precise when it comes to roster construction. Last season with the dominance of MVP Nicola Jokic at its all-time high and Jamal Murray playing at a near All-NBA level, Nuggets GM Calvin Booth felt it was time to strike in attempting to push the Nuggets into the conversation of the NBA’s elite teams. So in March Booth dealt Gary Harris, RJ Hampton and a 2025 first round pick to secure Aaron Gordon from the Orlando Magic in a mini-blockbuster then wasted no time in keeping Gordon in Mile High for the next 4 years. It was a risky move to bring in the uber-athletic yet offensively-limited former lottery pick, but one that Booth pounced on believing talents like Gordon don’t become available every day.
The Nuggets are now fully invested in adding Murray to the trio of Gordon, Michael Porter Jr and Jokic, the latter trio combining for a ridiculous 122.2 Offensive Rating and a healthy +10.8 Net Rating in the 588 minutes and 24 games since the deal. And while Gordon is important to the team’s success barring any unforeseen injuries to Jokic and assuming Murray returns to some semblance of his pre playoff injury, Will Barton will represent the final piece to the puzzle.
Barton is a throwback in a sense. He plays with an edge and battles consistency issues in terms of efficiency. But his impact on the other 4 players, once Murray returns, is undeniable.
UPDATE 1-1-22
Barton is averaging a career-high in minutes and his PPG has skyrocketed 18.6% from last year, helping lead the Nuggets to the 5th seed in the Western Conference. The Nuggets will continue to need Barton’s overall productivity if they are going to host a playoff game come playoff time.
5. Derrick Rose
New York Knicks
We talked about MSR’s input on Derrick Rose’s trade value and how the Knicks were able to be on the right side of that lopsided deal with the Pistons a year ago.
What’s interesting to me is just how important Rose is to what the Knicks continue to build. Fans on Twitter believe that of all the current Knicks RJ Barrett is “most important” to them taking the next step.
While I agree Barrett’s continued ascension is key to the Knicks continuing to climb up the Eastern Conference Standings, to me (and MSR agrees) the most important member of the Knicks is Rose. His impact last year on the team’s second unit was extraordinary. Fans constantly begged for Rose to replace Elfrid Payton, a change that coach Tom Thibodeau made during the playoff series against the Hawks, but the change of pace that Rose brought off the bench was a huge advantage for the team during the regular season.
Rose shot a career high 41.1% from three point range - a far cry from his early years when critics said he couldn’t shoot the basketball - and his 48.7 FG% was his best since the 2009 season with the Thibodeau and the Bulls. And if you listen to the sounds coming out of training camp already, Rose is primed to play the same role this season as well, which will benefit the new additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier as well as rookie Deuce McBride - a hand picked Thibodeau selection who figures to play immediate rotation minutes.
The player who benefits the most from Rose? Second year dynamo Immanuel Quickley. Playing off of Rose on the second unit the Knicks rookie from Kentucky shot 48% from deep off of 4.5 passes per game. That’s the type of bench backcourt synergy you need to be a sustainable winning NBA team
Metrics aside, Rose is another extension of Thibodeau on the court, which gives the Knicks coach 48 minutes worth of direct connection to what he wants the team to run and what adjustments to make.
That direct path of communication is priceless and could be the key to the Knicks advancing past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since beating the Boston Celtics in 2013.
UPDATE 1-1-22
It’s no coincidence that with Derrick Rose spending a significant portion of the early season out of the lineup, the Knicks have slipped back into the pack of teams fighting for a playoff seed. Rose was the engine that made the Knicks second unit run teams off the floor last year, but with the league adjusting combined with Rose’s setbacks, the Knicks continue to struggle to put forth consistent 48 minute efforts night in and night out.
How important is Rose? In 89 minutes combined, Rose-Alec Burks- Taj Gibson- Obi Toppin- Immanuel Quickley 112.2 ORT-84.2DRT = +28 NET, which is by far the best on the team. The problem? The group has only been able to play 10 of the team’s 36 games together.