Top 5 Off Season NBA Executive Moves of 2021
The NBA is widely considered a “star’s league”, but it’s often the low key moves that can really move the needle for a franchise… and quickly.
As you sit around with friends and family this holiday season enjoying all that you are grateful for, there are a handful of NBA executives who may be feeling a little more holiday cheer thanks to some key moves that have paid immediate dividends in 2021.
Before we turn the page into 2022, I think it’s important to take a look at some of the best off season transactions as it stands now, with an eye on them truly paying off when it matters come Spring time. While immediate dividends are nice, long term gains in the form of playoff success and NBA Championships are the real bounty for NBA front office people. Last year, the Knicks decision to land Derrick Rose or cents on the dollar paid off big time during the regular season before fizzling in the 1st round. The Hawks went all in on their quest to build around Trae Young and it won them a series. While Serge Ibaka didn’t put the Clippers over the top in the West, he may have cost the Nets a chance to represent the East against the Phoenix Suns, who marched to the top thanks to bringing in Chris Paul.
Here are the top stealth off season moves of the early 2021-22 campaign:
5. Warriors Signing Gary Payton II
Payton, who had a bottom 5th percentile MSR in 2020 (5.34), has been a tremendous rotation inclusion to the red-hot Warriors, particularly on the defensive end. After toiling around in the G-League with brief stops in Washington, Milwaukee and LA, Payton II has really found a home in the Bay Area, not far from where his father dominated the Pacific Northwest for over a decade. These are the types of moves that great organizations like the New England Patriots have made historically to rebuild and sustain on the fly. Alex Myers and his staff have been terrific in adding a few recycled pieces (Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter and Nemanja Bjelica) into a rotation that plays to their strengths and Payton is no different.
Per NBA Stats, the 5 man lineup of Payton, Curry, Porter, Iguadala and Bjelica have combined for a 110.5 offensive rating and a 85.1 defensive rating +25.4 overall. This strong rotation has helped lead the Warriors to an NBA best 27-7 record, tied with the Phoenix Suns for best in the West.
4. Bulls Sign and Trade for Lonzo Ball
In what many, including myself, considered to be the “biggest dice roll” of the off season, Lonzo Ball (8.54 MSR in 2020-21) and the Chicago Bulls have proved to be a perfect early fit. MSR also had the two as an identical match (Breakout Players, Sept 16, 2021) and with Ball quarterbacking the new Modern Bulls, Chicago has jumped to the top of the Eastern Conference. They are poised to host their first playoff series since 2015 behind Ball’s 13.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 5 APG.
Here’s what we said: “Replacing the Steven Adams with Nikola Vučević on the floor from a spacing perspective will do wonders for Zo, whose ability to get downhill and finish or kick to shooters is one of his strengths that is yet to be fully deployed. According to B-Ball Index Spacing data, Ball had challenges in wiggling free in 1/2 court offensive sets (17.1), which was in the bottom 10th percentile in the entire league. His drives per game (5.0) and points per drive (1.7 ppg) validates this. He’s far too big and talented in pick and roll to be this limited. How that translates in to wins for the Bulls remains to be seen and despite losing the pick and roll threat that is Zion…”
The results: Ball has actually been the 3rd driver behind DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, instead choosing to trigger the offense, while finding spots to work off the ball and off their drives. Ball’s ability to blend in as a secondary scorer and facilitator pairs perfectly with his continued growth as one of the game’s premiere on ball defenders. With other teams in the hunt for Ball during the offseason, the move that appeared to be a tremendous gamble at the time seems to be paying off for the Bulls Vice President Artūras Karnišovas and GM Marc Eversley.
A critical rotation addition, Mills has provided the Nets with a solution to the Kyrie Irving situation both on and off the court.
3. Nets Signing Patty Mills
The impact of signing of Mills under the constrains the Nets put on themselves by going the Super Team route is nothing short of incredible. Former Nets executive turned ESPN powerhouse Bobby Marks said it best here:
Aside from what he’s done on the court, (8.33 MSR, 13.9 PER and 2.3 Win Shares) Mills has provided veteran stability in the face of the Kyrie Irving situation in Brooklyn. And with the news that Kyrie will be returning to the team on road games, Mills’ team-first mindset is perfect to handle the impact his minutes, and production, will receive when Irving returns.
Full marks for Brooklyn GM, and fellow Aussie, Sean Marks for this MLE signing. This single move could be the key to unlocking a championship in Brooklyn.
1. (tie) Bulls Sign and Trade for DeMar DeRozan
Raise your hand if you had Captain Mid Range as an MVP candidate before the season started.
With no hands in the air, it’s hard not to put the DeRozan sign and trade near the top of this elite list for 2021. All he’s done is pair perfectly with Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball giving the Bulls the most exciting version since Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. All DeRozan has done has lead the Bulls in scoring at 27 PPG (5th in NBA) while shooting 50% from the field 36.8% from 3 and 88% from the stripe thanks to his continued mindblowing mastery in the mid range, a spot many young NBA fans would have liked to have died years ago. MSR ranked DeRozan #1 on our list of available UFAs and RFAs.
With DeRozan thriving, it is most certainly alive and well and the Bulls are poised to host their first playoff series since 2014-15 under Tom Thibodeau. It’s rarely stated, but the Bulls picked off the San Antonio Spurs in landing DeRozan. Another apparent win for Artūras Karnišovas and Marc Eversley.
Signed on a 1-year prove it deal, McGee and the Suns are all smiles thanks to his play helping lead the defending Western Conference Champs back to the top.
1.(tie) Suns Signing JaVale McGee
Here’s what Suns Coach Monty Williams said about McGee during training camp:
“To me, he’s a breath of fresh air. He’s been around. He’s a good dude. And I’ve told him that. I think he had some assumptions about me so I think the first couple of days around me he was trying to do what he thought would allow for him to fit in with me and I had to tell him like, ‘Hey man, we don’t do that. Be yourself around here.’ It’s just about respect.”
Respect, indeed. In terms of value add, McGee has far exceeded the 1-yr/$5M “prove it” contract that he signed with the Suns on August 16, 2021. How much?
McGee is 16 in the league in MSR, which is outstanding for a big, and 8th in the league in PIE, behind a list of who’s who at the Center position - Jokic, Jarrett Allen, Embiid and Rudy Gobert. His pairing with DeAndre Ayton gives the Suns 48 minutes of elite rim running and rim protection. His +9.4 on court rating is the highest of his career and at 34 he’s still dunking on everyone in the league boasting 54 jams in just 34 games. Kudos to James Jones and is staff for recycling McGee’s strengths. It is not a stretch to say the man NBA people call “The Big Secret” is one no longer and that he could very well be the X-Factor in putting the Suns over the top as title contenders in 2022.
1.(tie) Cavs re-Signing Jarrett Allen
Jarrett Allen is only 23 years old.
Let’s think about that for a second.
MSR ranks Allen as a first tier big in the league right now - up there with the likes of Jokic, Embid and Gobert. You could argue that metrics shouldn’t place him above an Anthony Davis or Karl Anthony Towns, but to have a center averaging a career high 17 PPG on 70% shooting and 17.7% usage is supreme value and efficiency at the position. He’s also an elite drop defender who can stifle pick and roll and protect the rim. If you’re looking at a reason why the Cavs are the surprise team in the entire NBA (to date immediately following Rubio’s knee injury) look no further at Allen’s presence in the middle. It’s what allows Evan Mobley to be active and take chances in passing lanes and on the offensive glass.
Many, including those in Mobley’s camp, found the signing of Allen this summer to be puzzling. I, however, did not and thankfully for Cavs fans neither did Koby Altman. He was 2nd on my list of FAs and I defined him a cornerstone Modern Center back in 2019 when he was in Brooklyn. Altman was patient before inking Allen to the 5 year $100 million deal in August.
Don’t expect much change in Allen’s game. The Cavs will miss Rubio’s leadership, but they are set on the interior for years to come.
Hat tip to Basketball Reference and NBA Stats for help with the data.