MSR and The Modern Big: Myles Turner and Mitchell Robinson

Bigs Are Still A Critical Part of the Roster Building Puzzle.
Here’s One Exercise On How MSR Helps the Process of Defining the Modern Big

MSR Defines the Gold Standard For the Modern Big
Myles Turner is In Elite Company
The Decision on What to Pay Mitchell Robinson is a Critical One for the New York Knicks

What makes line ups click?

It’s a philosophical question that seems to have many answers depending on who you ask. To me, it’s always been about how well teams can acclimate the third player in a great pair.

The Big.

Modernists can continue to devalue the role of The Big all they want. They aren’t wrong when clinging onto trends set by the lack of coaching of bigs on the lower levels combined with these young, impressionable talents wanting to play like guards. Just spare me the idea that the big is disappearing completely or that will happen in our lifetimes. And while you’re at it, tell it to Nikola Jokic while he’s destroying teams. Anthony Davis and his ring. Even Giannis has a ton of classic big in his 6’11 frame.

Speaking of Giannis. Does he win a chip without Brook Lopez? You all remember Lopez, right? The guy with one foot out of the league after leaving the Nets who learned to shoot and pay particular attention to shot contesting? All that’s done for him is help him adapt and survive almost 300 more NBA games covering 4 seasons. His survival and adoption of Modern Skills added to his existing tool set, all which led to him being called Champion.

We could go around the league and do this exercise with many players and teams, and we will eventually, but I’d like to talk about two teams and two players specifically. Two teams that are battling for wins in what is quickly becoming a highly-competitive Eastern Conference are the New York Knicks and the Indiana Pacers. Both have a lot in common, starting with two established well-rounded centerpieces. The Pacers have a two-time All-Star in Domantas Sabonis and the steady two-way playmaking floor general in Malcolm Brogdon. They also have a star-on-the-rise to share the backcourt with Brogdon in Caris Levert. The Knicks have an All-Star (and the NBA’s Most Improved Player) in Julius Randle and rising star RJ Barrett. They’ve added one of the game’s most dynamic pick and roll specialists in Kemba Walker adding to a young-but-improving backcourt that also includes the revitalized Derek Rose. Both teams are looking to add the 3rd piece to these combinations and one who will fit with the other players on what are talented, albeit complex, rosters.

Of course, neither Mitchell Robinson nor Myles Turner is the caliber of player to provide all-time great lift to either team today, but their modern versatility in today’s game of optimal spacing would figure to add a critical dynamic to whatever lineup they exist in. Both are two-way forces who figure to be 30+ minute mainstays in the league for years to come.

Let’s take a deeper dive.

Eye Test

Mitchell Robinson

It’s safe to assume everyone under the age of 35 who watches Mitchell Robinson agrees he one side order of fries way from the perfect Happy Meal.
He dunks everything (397 career), gets fouled a ton, (336 FTAs 9in 158 games) and can dominate the rim at both ends (325 career blocks). He does all these things at a ridiculously efficient level, yet the gaping hole in his game is the lack of even the slightest semblance of a jump shot. HE. DOES. NOT. SHOOT.

Every Happy Meal just needs an order of fries, right? We aren’t looking for truffle or garlic fries here people.

It used to be that shooting prowess out of a big was considered a luxury .Today, not so much. In the Modern NBA, you have to be able to stretch the defense to the perimeter and Robinson simply does not. Can he? At this stage of the game it really doesn’t matter. All the does is that he doesn’t. Heck, he’s not even a catch and shoot threat in face up situations despite all of the teasing he does during the off season on YouTube and “The Gram”.

Even so, when healthy he’s a Tom Thibodeau lunch pail guy in the trenches who can stifle all 30 of the game’s best pick-and -rolls with some of the best drop coverage I have ever seen. His instinctiveness for wiping aspiring shots at their peak is Bill Russell-esque. He’s a dynamic drag screener in transition. None of what I just said is an overstatement if we’re all here telling the straight up truth about a guy most NBA writers never heard of before the Knicks took him at 36 back in 2018.

Did I mention he dunks everything?

If he could only open the lane for a teammate to penetrate to the rim…

Myles Turner

Truth be told, Turner is caught in a tough situation on most nights when he shares the floor with Sabonis. There’s just not optimal spacing, which we will get into later in this post. The word that comes to mind for me when watching Turner is “tough”. He’s a bully at the rim defensively, often using his body to make subtle contact that allows for his gargantuan arms and hands to stop even the strongest attempts to finish. Those limbs, combined with really nimble feet, come together for some package of raw skill and talent.

I don’t care what era this is, 7-footers should not be able to do this.

Turner is in rare company when it comes to being a dominant 2-way stretch big. Low end projection, think a younger version of Serge Ibaka, who dominated from the paint and behind the arc while in Oklahoma City and has built one of the games unique and impressive skills over his 13 year career. He also sits aside Jokic, Embid, Anthony Davis, Ibaka, Karl Anthony- Towns and Kristaps Porzingis as bigs who have amassed over 250 Dunks, 300 Three Pointers and 500 blocks over a 6-year period.

MSR 2020-21

Myles Turner - 8.22 (+6%)
Mitchell Robinson - 6.99 (-14.49%)

MSR has almost 50 skill variables that we’ve identified for the Modern NBA player that we can put a statistical measure on. All of these combined results in the total MSR number. What we see here is that Robinson’s 2020-21 saw a near 15% decline year over year while Turner’s climbed 6%. The biggest contributors to Robinson’s decline? The drop in TS% as well as the complete evaporation of points per drive. Robinson registered 0% impact making any kind of plays off of drives vs. 2019-20. Turner, on the other hand, saw lift in many statistics including: minutes per game, 3PT rate and Real Plus/Minus, to name a few.

While Turner’s skill set appears more vast per MSR, as you can see by the player Pie Charts, it is important to note that Robinson’s Player Impact Estimate is higher (9% of total MSR) vs. Turner’s 7.2%. I’ve added Nicola Jokic’s chart as the MSR Gold Standard for Modern Bigs for more context.

3 Point Rate

This one is pretty obvious as we know Robinson doesn’t attempt to shoot 3s. What is very interesting, though, is that in his career (6 seasons) Turner has recorded 269 dunks and 330 made three pointers. As mentioned, that’s a rare group

Spacing

According to Basketball Index, Robinson was 16th in the league (minimum 800 mins) in playing in lineups with optimal spacing. Turner was 77th. Despite the drop in ranking, Turner still managed a higher MSR and continued to develop as one of the games top young bigs. Robinson shared time with Nerlens Noel, who was 13th in spacing.

Scoring Gravity (Even)

BBall Index has a similar metric called “Scoring Gravity”, which compiles the amount of scoring talent surrounding players possess. Both Turner and Robinson benefit from a great lift from teammates. Turner thrives in a system thanks to heavy minutes playing with Sabonis, Brogdon, Oladipo and Justin Holiday while Robinson relied heavily on the scoring acumen of All-Star Julius Randle and surging second sophomore RJ Barrett, both of whom carried the scoring load on a nightly basis. Robinson should also benefit on the recent acquisitions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, as well as playing more minutes with Derrick Rose, who was the engine that zoomed past opposing teams’ early bench rotation and second units repeatedly after returning back to NY from the Motor City.

Similar value players to Myles Turner
Jaren Jackson (Grizzlies)
Serge Ibaka (Clippers)
Jalen Smith (Suns)

Similar players to Mitchell Robinson
Moses Brown (OKC)

Conclusion

Let’s be honest. Both player are unique when it comes to overall skill sets and they play on teams that are working hard to build competitive playoff rosters. This is not to suggest that there is a deal to be made by any means and there would be some push back from Knicks fans who want to keep and continue to develop the underpaid Robinson. That said, historically a team with young building blocks have the ideal big as a major part of their roster to work with existing pairs. It can quickly elevate you to championship status. From a versatility perspective, the third player is critical.

What do I mean? Magic and Kareem. Jordan and Pippen. Stockton and Malone. Bird and McHale. Lebron and Kyrie. Curry and Klay. People talk about Super Teams having the edge because of talent, which is obviously very true, but the key to these teams clicking is how well they produce in 3s. Dominant duos historically have created havoc and when you have the third player in the mix, you’re going to create matchup nightmares, especially in half court offense, all night every night.

Jordan and Pippen had, well, Jordan. But for the sake of argument take your pick from Horace Grant, Dennis Rodman or Toni Kukoc. Dennis Johnson was the glue for the Celtics and James Worthy completed the Lakers. Kevin Durant is still vilified for joining the Warriors, so much so that Draymond wanted him gone for essentially pushing him to 4th. And if we’re being honest, Lebron had good reason to ultimately leave Cleveland because the Cavs were actually better against the Warriors with Kevin Love, the supposed 3rd Muskateer, on the bench in those epic Finals Series.

If you’re a team lucky enough to be in that position, choose wisely…