These Players Will Have A Breakout NBA Season in 2021-22
Masai Ujiri and the Toronto Raptors wisely made sure any deal including Kyle Lowry and the Miami Heat started and ended with Precious Achiuwa, who MSR had rated 5th overall in the 2020 NBA Draft. The League will see why this season and beyond.
Are We Sure the Raptors Didn’t Win the Kyle Lowry Trade?
Lonzo Ball and The Chicago Bulls are a Match Made in Heaven
Will Deuce McBride Make Other Knicks Players Expendable?
First off, let’s break down the question. What exactly is a “breakout player”?
For many in and around the Modern NBA, much like with QBs in the NFL, it’s a young point guard recently drafted ready to unseat the veteran incumbent. Fans and media LOVE pushing the narrative that “if you’re gonna lose, LOSE WITH YOUTH!!”
Fair or not, that’s not how I necessarily choose look at. Each scenario should be taken case by case. To me, it’s always been about proper player development and some guys just aren’t done playing while others just aren’t ready. In addition to what the MSR data tells us, a breakout player is one who is prepared when his number is called and forces the coaching staff and organization to figure out a way to keep him in the mix long term. A free agent with a new contract looking for a fresh start, or a low key player part of a blockbuster trade who will now have more time to flourish if he’s comfortable in his new home.
We’ll look at the rookies from this class in the coming weeks as we get to training camp, but for now here are a few names who will pop this year and make a major impact on, not only their own roster, but on the league as a whole by level of tier.
Level 1
Precious Achiuwa (Toronto Raptors)
Achiuwa was taken 20th overall in 2020. I had him 5th on my 2020 Draft Big Board shared with multiple NBA front office executives. I scouted him when he was at St. Benedict’s, and then again at Montverde. Here’s a snippet from my scouting report heading into the 2020 Draft.
5- Precious Achiuwa (MSR B+)
“Best shot blocking timing in the draft (7-2 wingspan). Best second jump in the draft. Grade would be higher with slightly better shooting numbers. Can play the modern 4 and 5 and can guard 3 positions. Guards pick and roll as well as any big in the draft. Dunks everything. Conference Player of the Year (AAC). 2.9 defensive win shares is absurd. Not a 3 point shooter with volume, but could be. He can knock down shots with both feet set and plays with the confidence that he can learn to force the defense to have to contest. Solid off ball player, especially when it comes to seeing lanes, cutting and finishing. Always moving. 2nd best off ball rim protector in the draft (Wiseman). Can handle the ball in transition with speed at 6’9. Zero concern with age (22 in September).
10/31/20- 28% of Memphis’ possessions played were “bad” possessions per Shot Quality, yet Achiuwa still managed 1.04 Points per good possession, which was in the 73rd percentile. Tells me his guards weren’t good, yet he still managed to score.”
Achiuwa had a nice impact with the Miami Heat in his first year, but he was very raw for that situation. Playing in 61 games and averaging just 12.1 minutes per game, Achiuwa will now have a clean slate and many minutes to learn on the job in Toronto following the Kyle Lowry trade. Truth be told, when I saw his name in the deal after it was announced I almost didn’t believe that Pat Riley agreed to it. I think based on Lowry’s age and Achiuwa’s ceiling he could end up being the best player in the deal and that may not be close. My favorite stat of his? 41 of his 124 field goals made (33%) last year were dunks. He was a key piece in Team Nigeria blitzing Team USA in Vegas.
Expect more of this in 2021-22 and beyond.
Ceiling in 2022- Double Double Machine and NBA’s Most Improved Player
Floor in 2022- 30+ MPG starter close to averaging a double double (Points/Rebounds) and every other night highlight potential
Achiuwa is the top Breakout NBA Player per MSR (Video Courtesy of USA Network)
Spencer Dinwiddie (Washington Wizards)
2019-20 MSR Ranking (32nd in NBA)
HOT TAKE, GET YOUR HOT TAKE HERE.
The Nets UNQUESTIONABLY win the NBA championship if Dinwiddie doesn’t get hurt last season. Granted, it was pre James Harden trade and who really knows how that works out with Dinwiddie in the mix, but I’m convinced they figure it out and win the Larry O’Brien trophy. Dinwiddie was DOMINANT to start the season last year. How about the 99th percentile in Scoring Gravity per B-Ball Index? He was absolutely absurd and the Nets were wiping the floor with teams. It will take a little time, but Dinwiddie is a winning Modern player and will finally have the keys to his own franchise as the PG1.
Does the knee scare me a little bit in terms of the contract? Of course. To say otherwise would be foolish. But with Bradley Beal with him sharing a multitude of minutes, at least in the short term, and rising young talent in Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert, Dinwiddie should be able to break out in a big way.
Ceiling in 2022- All Star, NBA’s Comeback Player of the Year
Floor in 2022- Heavy drive, disruptive PG1. 15+ PPG and 8 assists on a team fighting for last playoff spot in Eastern Conference.
Lonzo Ball (Chicago Bulls)
2020-21 MSR: 8.25
One of the game’s great mysteries in recent years is why would Lonzo Ball not want to extend with the New Orleans Pelicans and partner with Zion Williamson to become the game’s next great dynamic duo. I’ll save some info that I may have discovered for a later date, but it would seem that the Zion and Zo Show would have been a big time ticket for the foreseeable future. In any event, Zo is in the Windy City after a sign and trade and he couldn’t be set up better for a big time breakout season.
To say he is an enigma is an understatement:
Replacing the Steven Adams with Nikola Vučević on the floor from a spacing perspective will do wonders for Zo, whose ability to get downhill and finish or kick to shooters is one of his strengths that is yet to be fully deployed. According to B-Ball Index Spacing data, Ball had challenges in wiggling free in 1/2 court offensive sets (17.1), which was in the bottom 10th percentile in the entire league. His drives per game (5.0) and points per drive (1.7 ppg) validates this. He’s far too big and talented in pick and roll to be this limited. How that translates in to wins for the Bulls remains to be seen and despite losing the pick and roll threat that is Zion, Ball adds second year wing Patrick Williams, who has all the tools to be unlocked by a talented passing lead guard. There will be some early challenges integrating with DeMar DeRozan, who has made a career of attacking and scoring off the drive, but Zo’s improved off ball shooting should help them eventually play on a string.
I’m expecting big things this season and beyond.
Ceiling in 2022- All-Star Reserve snub, All-NBA Defense
Floor in 2022- QB1 on Non-Playoff team
Level 2
Patrick Williams (Chicago Bulls)
Speaking of the aforementioned Williams, this could be a big year for the talented 2nd year player out of the Leonard Hamiliton School of Modern NBA basketball skills otherwise known as Florida State. Despite my affinity for Coach Hamilton’s process, I didn’t have Williams as high as most NBA evaluators and I really felt the Bulls reached for him with the 4th pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. Here is a snippet from my pre draft assessment:
17- Patrick Williams (MSR Grade C+)
“Youngest NBA prospect in the draft probably has him ranked higher, but I’m not 100% sold on him just yet. Not a player who comes in and helps you right away. A lot of young Trevor Ariza, which is a huge plus for me, which is why he’s top 15. Ariza was a 2nd round pick. Just don’t think there’s time to wait for us right now. Spent a lot of time mid-range and in short corners showing good burst to the rim, but overall offensive game is very raw and needs a lot of development. Defensive ability is there with size and length, but offense is no where near NBA rotation caliber. Can’t afford to play 4 on 5 offensively in today’s NBA.”
This is where not seeing a player play live often enough can come back to bite you a bit. Williams’ offensive ability, mainly thanks to his size and strength, was eye-opening. He also displayed the ability to knock down 3s (54) with a reasonable .261 3PAr for a 19-year-old wing. And that was playing in lineups in the middle of the road (51.1) in terms of total team penetration. Adding DeRozan and Ball should unlock him in a big way. Again, I’m expecting big things from he and Lonzo for the Bulls, who are looking for their first playoff birth since 2017.
Ceiling in 2022- All-NBA Defense
Floor in 2022- Top 15 Rising 3 and D NBA wing
Sterling Brown (Dallas Mavericks)
Brown is the type of high risk, high reward move that Dallas Mavericks fans have become accustomed to.
Yes there are off court issues, but this could be the move that gets Dallas over the hump and into the top 4 in the Western Conference. That’s how much I like this guy’s tool set, and MSR agrees.
This pairing list now includes Luka Doncic, who MSR believes matches very well with the former Rocket. If Brown can lock everything in (bigger if ), he’ll add a dimension that Dallas hasn’t seen with Luka. Has the potential to be a sneaky-good off season move with big upside. Smart move by the Mavs to hedge the Brown signing by bringing in former Knick Fran Ntilikina.
2020-21 MSR 7.83
Ceiling- Rotational mainstay with ability to play 30 minutes as top 3 rotation guard elevating Dallas to top 4 seed in Western Conference.
Floor- Out of the league when contract expires (2023)
Eric Paschall (Utah Jazz)
I remember the night I fell in love with Paschall as a Modern NBA talent. I’ve been watching him for many years in High School and then his first college experience at Fordham University.
It was a cold night at MSG on February 19, 2019 in a Big East battle against Shamorie Ponds and St. John’s.
“Worst shooting night of the year in a year littered with overall bad performances, starting with Paschall. Got there early to see his warm up. Improved physically. Very impressive bounce and balance. NBA body. Shoots well from corners and slot. Forced a lot of shots when pressed against the shot clock, which led to slow start then he began to force shots. Five turnovers off of dribble drives and kicks. Not great off the dribble. Dominant defensively. At one point protected rim on drive forcing kick to left corner then got out to contest the corner 3 (ended up a miss). That was the most impressive thing I saw all night and perhaps all season. Fouled out after 37 mins. Played the whole game. Excellent screen assist player in spread PnR. Freed shooters all night, but players didn’t shoot well.”
What he will bring to the Utah Jazz is a dynamic that they haven’t had. He’s Draymond Green-lite in terms of versatility. He can score from the 5 position while being able to defend PnR. Most importantly, he knows how to play the role and can be integrated into what the Jazz have built seamlessly. The fact that he and Donovan Mitchell have been best friends since AAU will only enhance his already significant value. He’s the low-key best signing of the off season.
Ceiling- High level rotation player on NBA Title Contender
Floor- Solid rotation player on NBA playoff team with home court for at least 1 round
Bryn Forbes (San Antonio Spurs)
Forbes returns to the Spurs with a clear lane to have a major impact thanks to more minutes.
Despite stepping aside during the back end of the Finals run last year, Forbes had a very solid MSR during the season (8.37) playing 19.1 MPG in 70 games with the eventual World Champions. He now returns to San Antonio where he started his career in what will be an increased role thanks to the departure of long time Spurs PG Patty Mills who signed with the Brooklyn Nets in the off season. With the increased minutes in an already familiar system, Forbes should excel.
He will have to in order to help the Spurs make up for the losses of Mills and DeMarr DeRozan and while I don’t think he’s capable of necessarily carrying a team, I think he can be a solid starter given the opportunity.
2020-21 MSR 8.37
Ceiling- Solid NBA PG1
Floor- Rotation player on non-playoff team
Don’t Be Surprised If…
Deuce McBride makes the Knicks rotation and plays heavy minutes making other players expendable for upgrades at other positions. Has all the skills and Tom Thibodeau absolutely LOVES him…Jordan McLaughlin breaks through and starts 30+ games for the Minnesota Timberwolves… Jalen Smith begins to show the Suns front office that he is major minutes away from being starting caliber modern big…Justin Champagnie (University of Pittsburgh, 2-way contract) not only makes the roster, but makes a rotational impact for the Toronto Raptors this season.