Deep Dive: Varese 4th Quarter Struggles 2.0
Exec Summary
I was able to go back and watch every 4th Quarter of the season thus far and look at every FGA to see what I could find in response to:
Overall Thoughts on why scoring goes down in 4th Quarters using both Eye Test and Metrics.
4th Q eFG% vs. Overall eFG%
21% overall decreaseTime of FGs attempted vs Shot Clock (early, mid, late)
Early/Mid- 68.4%
Late 31.2%
Shot Clock violation 0.4%
**31% eFG in the FIRST 5 Mins of the 4th quarters despite them being Early/Mid in clock
**46.5% eFG in the FINAL 5 Mins of the 4th quarters despite them being Early/Mid in clockContested vs Uncontested Shots
126 of 250 4th quarter FGs were CFGAs50.4%)
eFG of CFGAs = 27%
124 of 250 4th quarter FGs were UFGAs (49.6%)
eFG of UFGAs = 59%Assisted vs. Unassisted (and FG%)
54.5% Overall vs. 46% in 4th Quarter
15% drop
EYE Test
The biggest thing for me is that early in the quarters the lack of paint touches plus defensive matchups specifically against Woldetensae and Owens on post ups. The strategy is to not double team in general, but there are doubles and that leads to kick out 3s. When shots don't fall on the other end we see the leads diminish.
The second biggest culprit is Johnson's propensity to go rogue in ISO mid-late in the clock. He also loves fadeaways that he doesn't make. Of his 47 4th quarter FGAs 28 (60%) have come off isolation and he's shooting 28% on those shots. Isolation is an issue as a whole, but it starts with Johnson
4th Quarter eFG vs Overall
Through 14 games, Varese has a total eFG of 54.9%. However, in the 4th quarter that drops significantly to 43.4%.
Decrease of 21%
EFG% By Action
High volume
DHO 60% (Markel Brown 5-7, 15 points)
Transition 50%
Pick and Roll 48%
Drive Kick/Drive Pass-Pass 43%
Isolation 32%
Less volume
Kick out off O-Reb 100%
Transition Pick and Roll (Early) 83%
Side Pick and Roll 66.7%
Post up 62.5%
Put back 37.5%
45 Cut - 33%
Dribble Drive Motion 33%
Spain 20%
SLOB 0%
Time of FGAs (Early-Mid, Late)
Early/Mid- 68.4%
Late 31.2%
Shot Clock violation 0.4%
**31% eFG in the FIRST 5 Mins of the 4th quarters despite them being Early/Mid in clock
**46.5% eFG in the FINAL 5 Mins of the 4th quarters despite them being Early/Mid in clock
**31% eFG in the FIRST 5 Mins of the 4th quarters despite them being Early/Mid in clock
**46.5% eFG in the FINAL 5 Mins of the 4th quarters despite them being Early/Mid in clock
PnR Action DECREASES 32% in the FINAL 5 Minutes vs.First 5
ISO Action INCREASES 12% in the FINAL 5 Minutes vs First 5
Contested vs. Uncontested
126 of 250 4th quarter FGs were CFGAs (50.4%)
eFG of CFGAs = 27%
124 of 250 4th quarter FGs were UFGAs (49.6%)
eFG of UFGAs= 59%
Assist% vs. 4th Quarter Assist %
54.5% Overall vs. 46% in 4th Quarter
15% drop
Varese 4th Quarter Shot Chart (1-14-23)