Deep Dive: Analyzing Varese’s 4th Quarter Performances
Varese’s 4th quarter differential this year is a combined -3.69 PPG
Note: This is not a complete viewpoint or indictment on coaching decisions. This is just to add context focusing on 4th quarters and 5 man combinations
For the sake of context, there have been several key injuries starting with Justin Reyes and Tariq Owens, but the data shows that the 4th quarter has been a problem from day 1. Key call outs:
It’s Consistent Early in the Quarter Every Game
I’ve been tracking lineup data for every game including points scored, points given up and total plus minus by 5-man combination. As you can see from the graphic above, the clear trend is to lose combination minutes early in the quarter 10 mins-6 mins before climbing back during the final 5.
To date, we’ve lost 8 of the 13 4th quarters (tying twice) by a total score of 305-257 (as of 1/7/23). The total difference for those quarters is -3.69 points, with Varese averaging 19.8 points vs Opponents 23.5 points.
Game 1 vs. Sassari (Outscored 17-26)
Sassari had a quick 5-0 run to start the quarter and 12-6 over the first 4 minutes. Nothing alarming as Varese was leading 70-55 heading into the quarter, but the start of the trend. In terms of match ups, Chris Deaf got lose during that stretch scoring 6 points and adding 2 assists.
Game 2 vs. Brescia (Outscored 15-28)
Brescia started the 4th on a 17-7 run doing the most damage in the 8 to 4 minute stretch. Ross/Ferrero/Johnson/Woldetensae/Owens were -11 during that stretch.
Game 3 vs Trentino (Outscored 17-21)
The combination of Ross/Brown/Johnson/Woldentensae/Reyes were outscored 4-0 during a pivotal 1:30 stretch with 2:11 remaining.
Game 4 vs. Reggio (Outscored 20-25)
Varese led 67-56 heading into the 4th before extending the lead to 87-75 with 1:24 remaining after FTs from Justin Reyes. Reggio closed the game on a 7-2 run to close the gap and win the quarter.
Game 5 vs. Treviso (Even 20-20)
Varese was outscored by Treviso 11-7 out of the gate surrendering a 67-65 lead after 3. Ike Irogebu was a force during that stretch. Teams matched up well the rest of the game in a tight Varese 87-85 win.
Game 6 vs. Givova Scafati (Even 25-25)
Similar to previous game Varese took an 8 point lead into the 4th (76-68), yet saw it get trimmed to 3 with 8:11 remaining. Combination of De Nicolao/Librizzi/Ferrero/ Woldentensae/Caruso were -5 in the 1:52 to start the quarter. Ross/De Nicolao/Brown/Johnson/Caruso finished the game strong on a 13-7 run to even the quarter and get the win.
Game 7 vs. Reyer Venice (outscored 20-21)
Once again, Varese took a 4 point that disappeared quickly. The combination of Ross/Brown/Johnson/Reyes/Owens were outscored 7-2 in the first 2:40 of the 4th. Strong bounce back from Ross/Brown/Johnson/Reyes/Caruso to go +8 during the final 5 minutes to secure the victory.
Game 8 vs. Tezenis Verona (outscored 20-21)
Strong start to the 4th led by the 5 man combination of Ross/Brown/Ferrero/Woldentensae/Caruso which extended an 8 point lead to 13.
Game 9 vs. Bologna (won 31-29)
Trailing by 10, Varese fought hard to close the gap. Ross/De Nicolao/Brown/Johnson/Owens won the final 3 mins 13-10 to close the gap to 9.
Game 10 vs. Carpegna (tied 19-19)
Once again outscored to start the 4th 13-8 before bouncing back.
Game 11 vs. Trieste (tied 19-19)
Varese carried a 13 point lead into the final frame, but the 5 man combination of Ross/Brown/Johnson/Woldetensae/Owens were outscored 17-7 during a pivotal 4:27 stretch midway through the 4th. Varese didn’t have an answer for Frank Bartley during that time. Fortunately, the team was able to recover and get the win in overtime.
Game 12 vs. Milano (won 24-14)
Similar to Bologna, Varese trailed 82-60 heading into the final frame. Team did a great job collectively of winning the period 24-14 to close the gap.
Game 13 vs. Derthona Tortona (outscored 15-27)
5 man combinations of Librizzi/De Nicolao/Ferrero/Woldetensae/Owens and Ross/Brown/Johnson/Woldetensae/Caruso were a combined -15 leading to Derthona to outscore Varese 27-15 in the final frame.
REAL Lineup to date. REAL Lineups are the combination of best plus/minus + total minutes played divided by 2.